A new international study warns that reindeer populations in parts of the Arctic could decline by as much as 80% by the year 2100 due to climate change. The projections raise significant concerns for biodiversity, Arctic ecosystems, and Indigenous communities.
Major Reindeer Declines Forecasted by 2100
An international team of researchers led by the University of Copenhagen and the University of Adelaide has found that reindeer (also known as caribou in North America) are facing a dramatic population decline driven by accelerating climate change. Using fossil records, ancient DNA, and advanced climate modeling, scientists reconstructed the species’ population changes over the past 21,000 years to forecast their future prospects.
While reindeer have historically shown a remarkable ability to endure environmental shifts, projected climate scenarios suggest that this resilience may no longer be enough. According to the study, reindeer populations in certain areas, especially North America, could decline by up to 80% by the end of this century unless serious interventions are made.
Paleogenetics Offers New Climate Insights
The research stands out for its use of ancient DNA (aDNA) to compare past and projected responses of reindeer populations to climate fluctuations. Looking back over two millennia, the team identified significant population losses during previous periods of rapid global warming. However, the scientists warn that the speed and scale of modern climate change is likely to exceed those historical benchmarks.
By combining paleoclimatic records with high-resolution computer simulations, researchers were able to predict more localized and specific areas of vulnerability in the Arctic. The evidence shows that the upcoming changes are not only faster but also more intense than what reindeer populations have survived in the past.
North America: Ground Zero for Reindeer Decline
The forecasted impact of climate change is not uniform across the Arctic. The study highlights North America, particularly Alaska and parts of northern Canada, as the most at-risk regions. Reindeer in these areas are projected to suffer the steepest declines unless there is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in wildlife conservation efforts.
The environmental shift would dramatically affect tundra ecosystems, where reindeer serve a critical ecological role. Their grazing activities help control plant competition and maintain species diversity, which in turn affects soil nutrient cycling and carbon storage.
Ecological Chain Reaction
The ripple effects from a sharp decline in reindeer populations could reach far beyond the species itself. The animals are integral to maintaining the tundra’s ecosystem balance. Their foraging patterns influence the availability and distribution of various plant species, and they contribute to the overall regulation of biodiversity in these fragile regions.
The study also found that reduced grazing pressure could lead to changes in the vegetation cover of the tundra. These changes may alter more than just biodiversity—they could also influence how the landscape reflects sunlight, affecting local and global climate patterns.
Implications for Indigenous Communities
Beyond ecology, reindeer represent a vital cultural and economic resource for Indigenous populations across the Arctic. Communities in Scandinavia, Russia, Canada, and the United States rely on these animals for food, clothing, and cultural traditions. A dramatic decline in reindeer numbers would not only threaten survival strategies but also fracture longstanding ways of life tied to seasonal migrations and subsistence herding.
Reindeer have become more than just a food source for these communities—they are a cornerstone of cultural identity and resilience in one of the planet’s harshest environments. The study emphasizes that without proactive conservation policies and investment in localized ecosystem management, the livelihoods of Arctic peoples may become unsustainable.
Urgent Need for Conservation Measures
The findings, published in the journal Science Advances, underline the urgent need for stronger climate action and targeted conservation strategies. North American reindeer populations are particularly vulnerable and could require immediate habitat protection, mitigation of industrial development, and better enforcement of wildlife management plans.
In total, the projections warn of a future in which up to two-thirds of global reindeer populations could face peril in varying degrees—unless governments, organizations, and local communities act swiftly. Conservation of these Arctic giants is not only about preserving a species but also protecting an entire ecosystem and a way of life.
