A new poll shows Denmark’s once-dominant Social Democrats hitting their lowest support in over a decade, as the Socialist People’s Party now stands shoulder to shoulder with them in voter backing.
Support for Social Democrats Crumbles
It has been exactly three years since Mette Frederiksen formed the centrist SVM government. Instead of celebrating stability, her leadership now faces another setback.
A fresh Epinion poll for DR and Altinget marks the worst numbers for the Social Democrats since 2013. Only 16.5 percent of voters say they would back the party if a parliamentary election were held today. In the 2022 general election, the party earned 27.5 percent. The drop is dramatic, reflecting months of internal tension and rising voter frustration.
Meanwhile, the Socialist People’s Party (SF), led by Pia Olsen Dyhr, has surged to 16 percent. Statistically speaking, the two parties are now nearly even in size. If these numbers translated into an election outcome, both parties would send 30 members to Parliament.
A Weak Birthday for the Government
The poll lands on the three-year anniversary of the governing coalition between the Social Democrats, Liberal Party, and Moderates. The government’s birthday gift could not have been worse. The combined support for all three parties has now dropped to 29.6 percent—its lowest since the coalition took office. In the 2022 election, the same three parties had attracted more than half of Danish voters.
Beyond statistics, the political mood inside the ruling party has become volatile. For the first time in Frederiksen’s tenure, a noticeable group of local Social Democrats has openly questioned her future as leader. Some local politicians have even urged her to step down.
Adding insult to injury, Arne Juhl—best known as the symbol of the government’s “Arne pension” plan—has announced he may vote for SF instead of his traditional party. This defection underscores how deeply voter trust has been shaken.
SF Rises While Voters Shift Left
For SF, the numbers are a breakthrough. The party’s platform focused on welfare, retirement reform, and climate initiatives appears to be resonating. Many voters who once saw SF as the junior partner in a “red bloc” alliance now see it as an equal player.
Even so, SF continues to back Mette Frederiksen as prime minister in a potential left-wing government. The party’s message centers not on replacing the prime minister but on redirecting national priorities toward welfare and green investment.
Because of that, the Social Democrats’ challenge is no longer just about rebuilding trust. They now face competition from a party aligned with much of their base.
Blue Bloc Gains Ground
The same poll paints an even more troubling picture for the sitting government. The right-wing “blue bloc,” consisting of Venstre, Liberal Alliance, the Conservatives, Danish People’s Party, the Denmark Democrats, and the Citizens’ Party, would secure 94 parliamentary seats—enough for a new majority if they could agree on forming a coalition.
Given that, the current government may need to reorient politically to maintain power. Despite ideological differences within the blue camp, their combined strength is at its highest point in years.
Still, Denmark’s complex political map means small shifts can upend any projection. Three parties—Moderates, the Alternative, and the Citizens’ Party—are hovering around the 2 percent threshold required to enter Parliament. Moderates and the Alternative fall slightly below that cutoff, while the Citizens’ Party, newly reinvigorated under Lars Boje Mathiesen, edges just above it. Because of polling uncertainties, it remains unclear which would actually make it into Parliament.
The Steepest Fall in Over a Century
If the Social Democrats earned only 16.5 percent in a real election, it would be their weakest parliamentary result since 1898. The decline underscores a long-term struggle to balance centrist compromise with traditional social-democratic values.
Interestingly, many within the party now admit that the 2024 municipal election, where the party dropped to 23.2 percent, was a wake-up call. The leadership promises action focused on welfare, inflation relief, and serious climate delivery. But the mood among voters indicates that trust will not be easily rebuilt.
At this point, few doubt the scale of the political crisis. Whether the Social Democrats can recover—or whether SF will emerge as their equal or successor—remains one of Denmark’s most closely watched political developments.
Sources and References
The Danish Dream: Mette Frederiksen’s leadership crisis shocks Denmark
The Danish Dream: Best tax advisor in Denmark for foreigners
DR: Ny måling er grum læsning for Socialdemokratiet: Nu er ‘lillesøster’ SF lige så store
