Trump Promises Cuba Will Fall Within Weeks

Sandra Oparaocha

Writer

March 11, 2026
7:08 am

While the United States continues military operations against Iran, President Donald Trump has already identified his next target. Cuba faces mounting American pressure through economic measures and possible military action, with Trump promising the communist regime will fall within weeks.

Trump Sets Sights on Cuba Despite Ongoing Iran Conflict

The American president has made clear that Cuba represents his next objective, even as US forces remain engaged in operations against Iran. Trump has repeatedly stated that the Cuban government is nearing collapse and that intervention is only a matter of time.

Threats Escalate During Iran Campaign

Since the operation in Venezuela on January 3, where President Nicolás Maduro was captured, Trump has insisted that the Cuban regime would soon fall as well. However, the threats have intensified since the offensive against Iran began over a week ago. At a White House event Thursday, Trump said he would wait a few weeks but that Cuba’s government falling was inevitable.

Trump told attendees he wanted to finish the Iran situation first before turning full attention to Cuba. On Friday, he repeated to CNN that Cuba would fall very soon. During Saturday’s summit with Latin American leaders, Trump declared that Cuba was reaching its end, stating he looked forward to the major change coming to the island nation.

Economic Pressure Mounts on Havana

Trump has brought Cuba’s already fragile economy close to total collapse to pressure the government in Havana. He first forced Venezuela to stop supplying money and oil to its longtime ally. In late January, he signed a decree threatening increased tariffs on goods from any country delivering oil to Cuba.

Trump later eased the policy as Cuba’s crisis worsened, but the American president has made clear that Cuban leaders must reach an agreement with the United States to avoid serious consequences. The nature of such an agreement remains unclear, though Trump has spoken openly about the possibility of a friendly takeover of power.

Alternative Plans Move Forward in Background

While Trump publicly discusses diplomatic solutions, US authorities are simultaneously preparing for scenarios where Cuba’s communist leadership refuses to surrender power voluntarily. Multiple media outlets report that federal prosecutors in Florida are building cases against senior Cuban officials.

Justice Department Investigates Cuban Leaders

A Trump-appointed federal prosecutor in Florida is currently examining options to bring charges against high-ranking Cuban government and communist party leaders, according to The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and AP news agency. Sources familiar with the plans say the prosecutor has formed a working group including FBI agents and representatives from the Treasury, State, and Health departments, along with several agencies.

The team’s purpose is to identify possible crimes related to drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Former prosecutor Evan T. Barr explained to The Wall Street Journal that this could lead to arrest warrants enforced in the same manner as in Venezuela. The United States justified capturing Maduro and his wife based on narcoterrorism charges against them.

Repeating the Venezuela Model

The Justice Department has not confirmed the reports but stated that federal prosecutors across the country work daily to enforce the law, including combating transnational crime. The approach mirrors the strategy used against Venezuela, where existing indictments provided legal justification for military intervention.

Trump has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead negotiations with Cuba. At Saturday’s summit, Trump expressed hope that reaching an agreement would be easy. However, the parallel legal preparation suggests the administration is prepared for resistance from Havana.

Monroe Doctrine Drives Regional Strategy

The current Trump administration has revived the Monroe Doctrine from 1823, which considers all of North and South America as the United States’ sphere of influence. This historical policy framework shapes Trump’s approach to Cuba and other nations in the region.

Western Hemisphere Dominance Reasserted

The US national security strategy from November states that America will enforce the doctrine and reestablish its superiority in the Western Hemisphere. The strategy also requires other countries in the region to prevent and counter mass migration to the United States and cooperate in fighting drug terrorists, cartels, and criminal organizations.

Twelve Latin American allies attended Saturday’s summit at Trump’s golf club near Miami under a new initiative called Shield of the Americas. Trump warned that under the renewed doctrine, the United States will not allow hostile foreign influence to gain a foothold in the Western Hemisphere. According to USA Today, Latin American leaders applauded when Trump promised to take care of Cuba.

Regional Support for Intervention

Trump stated that he was actually surprised when four leaders directly asked him to handle Cuba as a favor. He promised he would do exactly that. The public support from regional partners provides political cover for potential American action, though the exact nature of Trump’s promise remains unspecified.

Cuba’s current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, responded Saturday on social media X by criticizing summit participants for submitting to the interests of their powerful northern neighbor. He accused them of endorsing the deadly use of American military power to solve internal problems in other nations.

Rubio Leads Diplomatic and Strategic Efforts

Secretary of State Marco Rubio plays a central role in Trump’s Cuba strategy, both in public diplomacy and behind-the-scenes planning. The son of Cuban refugees, Rubio has long opposed the communist regime and advocates strongly for regime change.

Personal Stakes in Cuba’s Future

After the January attack in Venezuela, Rubio cryptically stated he would be worried if he lived in Havana or sat in Cuba’s government. Trump has joked that Rubio, with his Cuban background, could become a good new president for Cuba. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham also feels convinced that President Trump will soon target Cuba.

During a Sunday appearance on Fox News, Graham displayed a cap reading Free Cuba and declared that Cuba’s liberation was upon them. As chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham stated that both Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba are part of the same agenda for the United States. He described the administration as marching through the world and cleaning out the bad guys.

Secret Negotiations With Castro Family Member

The Miami Herald, Axios, and The New York Times have reported that Rubio has conducted secret talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban president Raul Castro. The Trump administration views him as representing the portion of the Cuban population open to a new approach in relations with the United States.

Rubio addressed Cuba’s future scenarios in late February, saying that Cuba needs to change but that everything does not need to change at once. He stated that if Cuban leaders implement sweeping reforms opening both economic and eventually political freedom for the population, the United States would naturally like to see that happen.

Risks and Uncertainties Remain

A forced regime change in Cuba carries significant risks that American planners must consider. The same concerns that complicated planning for Venezuela apply to Cuba, where economic collapse or political vacuum could trigger widespread unrest.

Humanitarian and Migration Concerns

If Trump follows through on threats to force regime change, potential consequences include violence, chaos, and humanitarian crisis if Americans install an opposition government. An economic collapse or political vacuum in Cuba risks sending a new wave of refugees toward the United States. The New York Times notes that previous waves of Cuban refugees in the 1980s and 1990s triggered political crises for American presidents at the time.

The solution may repeat the Venezuela approach, where the United States installs a more cooperative leader. However, the transition process remains uncertain, and the Cuban population’s reaction to foreign intervention is unpredictable. Trump has set no clear timeline beyond his statement of a few weeks, leaving observers to speculate about when action might occur.

International Response Unknown

Cuba’s geographic proximity to the United States and its symbolic importance in Cold War history make intervention more politically sensitive than the Venezuela operation. The response from other nations, particularly China and Russia, which maintain relations with Cuba, remains uncertain. Trump’s willingness to act despite international opinion, demonstrated in Iran and Venezuela, suggests he may proceed regardless of global reaction.

The relationship between the two countries has been frozen since the Cuban revolution in 1959, and many Americans support regime change. Trump has made clear that under his Monroe Doctrine revival, no hostile government will be tolerated in the Western Hemisphere. Whether Cuba falls through economic pressure, negotiated transition, or military intervention, Trump appears determined to add it to his list of toppled regimes alongside Venezuela and potentially Iran.