Europe Swaps Russian Gas for Trump’s Leverage

Opuere Odu

Writer

January 27, 2026
11:48 am

Europe’s dependence on American natural gas is raising alarm bells in Brussels as gas prices surge and winter cold depletes storage levels to the lowest since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With the EU finalizing a ban on Russian gas while importing record volumes from the United States, experts warn the continent has simply traded one risky supplier for another at a time when President Trump is wielding trade threats against longtime allies.

Gas Prices Jump as Winter Cold Bites

For Danish homeowners like Arne Poulstrup in the small town of Grejs near Vejle, the recent cold snap means cranking up the heat in his gas-fired home. It also means watching his quarterly gas bill climb higher.

European gas prices have risen sharply in recent weeks as freezing temperatures swept across the continent. On December 10, the list price for one megawatt-hour of gas stood at 195 kroner without taxes. By mid-January, that figure had jumped to 281 kroner, according to data compiled by think tank Europa for Danish Broadcasting Corporation.

Poulstrup dreams of switching to district heating and leaving gas behind entirely. But until that happens, he’s stuck dealing with volatile energy costs. Meanwhile, EU gas storage levels have dropped to just 48 percent of annual consumption in January, the lowest point since winter 2021/2022, right before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

If the cold weather persists through the rest of winter, Europe may need to order even more gas from the United States. That prospect is causing serious concern among policymakers in Brussels.

EU Replaces Russian Gas with American Supplies

As the European Union has phased out Russian gas imports, American liquefied natural gas has filled the gap. The EU finalized its ban on Russian gas imports on January 26, 2026, requiring short-term LNG contracts to end by April and pipeline gas by June. Long-term LNG contracts must cease by January 2027, with pipeline gas following by September 2027.

In practice, American gas now makes up roughly 30 percent of EU gas imports. Some estimates suggest that share could climb to 40 percent by 2030. Since President Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025, EU countries have imported 82.3 billion cubic meters of US gas worth an estimated 28 billion euros through January 2026.

Norway remains the largest single supplier at 30 percent of total imports. However, US LNG supplied 58 percent of all EU LNG imports in the second quarter of 2025, far ahead of Russia at 14 percent and Qatar at 8 percent. In early 2026 alone, 61 American gas tankers arrived in the EU, averaging more than two per day.

Growing Vulnerability to US Political Pressure

This heavy reliance on one supplier creates a dangerous vulnerability, according to Ditte Brasso Sørensen, vice director at think tank Europa. The uncertainty isn’t about whether gas will flow, but whether the United States under Trump will use Europe’s import dependence as leverage to achieve other political goals.

Surprisingly, that concern isn’t hypothetical. Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs and other economic measures against European allies. His administration’s national security strategy, released in November, explicitly stated that expanding US energy exports would strengthen relationships with allies while limiting adversaries’ influence and enabling the US to “exercise power” when and where necessary.

Denmark and other EU countries now find themselves questioning whether they can trust America as a stable, reliable energy partner.

Short-Sighted Strategy Coming Home to Roost

Jakob Dreyer, a researcher in international politics at the University of Copenhagen, suggests the decision to drop Russian gas and replace it with supplies from another single country may have been shortsighted. In hindsight, Europe now faces a pressing need to diversify its suppliers and reduce overall gas dependence.

Obviously, cutting ties with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine made political and moral sense. But swapping one autocrat’s gas for another creates similar risks. Greenpeace activists made this point dramatically by inflating giant figures of Putin and Trump in Brussels during protests, urging the EU to cancel its commitment to import American energy products and accelerate renewable energy instead.

On the short term, breaking free from gas dependence won’t be easy. Natural gas remains crucial not just for heating homes but for industrial production and the broader European economy. Even as EU countries work on a new energy security strategy focused on reducing consumption and finding alternative suppliers like Qatar, few options exist that are close, reliable allies of Europe.

Danish Climate, Energy and Supply Minister Lars Aagaard says electricity from wind turbines must replace gas over time. At a recent meeting of EU energy ministers in Hamburg, he emphasized the need for renewable energy to reduce vulnerability.

Impact on Danish Households

For ordinary Danes heating their homes with gas, the price increases hit directly. From January 1, 2026, HOFOR’s city gas prices for private customers set gas at 2.75 kroner per cubic meter, or 0.51 kroner per kilowatt-hour under measured consumption. Adding energy tax, CO2 tax, NOx charges and VAT brings the total to 5.48 kroner per cubic meter.

Energinet’s gas transmission tariff also rose 3.4 percent for 2026, aligned with Danish wage and price growth. These increases add costs for average households with gas furnaces at a time when many are already feeling financial pressure.

Back in Grejs, Arne Poulstrup doesn’t believe the Americans will suddenly shut off gas supplies. But he thinks Trump has delivered a wake-up call to Europe about the risks of energy dependence. As he watches his heating bills climb with each cold snap, the question becomes more urgent: what should ordinary consumers do?

Long-Term Energy Security Questions

Europe’s gas demand rose by 13 billion cubic meters in 2025, while storage ended the year 11 billion cubic meters lower than in 2024, at 57 percent full. These numbers heighten concerns about winter supply pressures, especially if cold weather continues longer than expected.

Some analysts project US LNG could reach 80 percent of EU imports by 2030, up from 57 percent in 2025. That level of concentration would create enormous leverage for Washington over European policy decisions. Given Trump’s track record of using trade threats and tariffs to pressure allies, the risk is real and growing.

At the same time, finding alternatives isn’t simple. Qatar and other suppliers lack the capacity or political alignment with Europe to fully replace American volumes. The long-term solution lies in reducing gas consumption through energy efficiency and expanding renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.

Until that transition happens, Europeans will remain caught between competing pressures: the need for reliable, affordable energy and the desire for independence from unpredictable suppliers. For homeowners like Poulstrup and policymakers in Brussels alike, the challenge is finding a path forward that doesn’t leave them vulnerable to the political whims of foreign leaders.

In the end, Europe’s energy security depends on accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels altogether. The current crisis may prove to be the motivation needed to speed up that transition, even as households face higher bills in the meantime.