Bulgaria’s draft 2026 defence budget sets aside EUR 2.708 billion, equivalent to about EUR 400 per person based on current population estimates, even as Prime Minister Rumen Radev pulls the country out of the pro-Ukraine “coalition of the willing.”
The paradox is stark. Bulgaria is spending more on soldiers and weapons than at any point in the past decade in both GDP share and absolute terms. Yet politically it is walking away from one of Europe’s clearest commitments to Ukraine’s post-war security. Radev announced mid-July that Bulgaria would no longer take part in a coalition of around three dozen countries plus Ukraine, designed to deploy peacekeeping forces once a ceasefire is signed. According to Bulgarian National Radio summarising NATO data, Bulgaria now allocates 2.05 percent of GDP on defence, up from just 1.31 percent in 2014.
Money Up, Solidarity Down
The numbers tell the story. According to Trading Economics, Bulgaria’s military budget climbed from USD 2.19 billion in 2024 to USD 2.59 billion in 2025, an 18 percent jump. That is roughly triple the long-run average of USD 859 million tracked by Trading Economics. The 2026 draft budget locks in another increase, allocating around EUR 2.7 billion, corresponding to 2.15 to 2.25 percent of GDP according to different official estimates cited by BTA and Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov.
Denmark is part of the same coalition and spent around 1.7 to 1.8 percent of GDP on defence in 2024, consistent with NATO and European Parliament datasets. Poland and Romania both currently spend above 2 percent of GDP on defence, according to NATO data. Bulgaria sits in the middle, above some Western European economies but below frontline states. Yet unlike Poland or Romania, Bulgaria is using its higher spending to step back rather than lean in.
The Coalition Bulgaria Just Quit
According to media reporting including Der Spiegel and United24Media, the coalition of the willing is a specific framework for post-war peacekeeping on Ukrainian soil. Member countries pledge troops and long-term guarantees, not just money or weapons. Bulgaria’s exit matters because the coalition relies on political credibility as much as military capacity. Analysts warn that such a stance could complicate future EU or NATO decisions that require unanimity.
Following April 2026 elections that gave Radev a parliamentary majority, his government moved to realign foreign policy without pro-Western partners. As reported by Der Spiegel, Radev stated Bulgaria does not participate in a coalition that insists on continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine. The stance resembles Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, who have repeatedly opposed or delayed EU decisions on sanctions and aid to Ukraine.
EU Budget Discipline Bends for Defence
The European Commission forecasts Bulgaria’s general government deficit to rise to about 4.1 percent of GDP in 2026, driven in part by sustained defence expenditure. A Commission convergence report explicitly cites a marked increase in defence expenditure, including investment, as one driver. According to the Epicenter Network, an EU national escape clause allows member states to spend an additional 1.5 percentage points of GDP on defence without triggering excessive deficit procedures. Bulgaria is taking advantage, raising military outlays while stepping back from its Ukraine commitments.
According to Fakti reporting on the draft 2026 budget, capital expenditures are set to increase by EUR 2.487 billion, with EUR 1.856 billion under European programmes and EUR 631 million from national funds. That split shows how Brussels money underpins infrastructure and potentially dual-use projects. Critics worry that Bulgaria is using EU fiscal flexibility to pursue an independent, Russia-friendly agenda while relying on Union funds for everything else.
What It Means for Denmark and Europe
NATO and EU security frameworks depend on members following through on both spending and political commitments. Bulgaria’s move is less about its small army and more about the precedent. A member state can now meet the two-percent defence target, qualify for fiscal leniency, and still openly question a key framework for collective security in Ukraine.
For internationals in Denmark, especially those from Ukraine or Eastern Europe, the practical effect is limited for now. Bulgaria’s withdrawal does not change NATO’s collective defence or EU sanctions law by itself. It affects political signalling and future peacekeeping arrangements. Watch official European Council conclusions and NATO voting records, not informal coalition membership, to see if Bulgaria’s stance translates into formal obstruction.
Denmark participates in joint European air-defence and missile-defence projects with other EU and NATO members. The credibility of those initiatives rests on a stable core of states willing to honour both financial and political pledges. Bulgaria just showed that one does not guarantee the other. The country is paying for more defence while offering less solidarity, and European security planners will have to account for that split.
