Most Syrian Refugees Will Stay Despite Return Orders

Frederikke Høye

March 8, 2026
11:26 pm

A majority of Syrian refugees with temporary protection in Denmark will likely be allowed to stay, according to legal experts analyzing recent test cases. Out of ten landmark decisions by Denmark’s Refugee Appeals Board, seven Syrians received residence permits despite a new assessment that Syria is now safe enough for general return.

The findings challenge political expectations that large numbers of Syrians could be sent home following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Legal scholars say the rulings set a precedent that will make it difficult to return most of the approximately 36,000 Syrians living in Denmark with temporary residence status.

Test Cases Reveal Complex Legal Reality

Denmark’s Refugee Appeals Board published its first ten test cases on Syrian asylum claims in early March 2026, following the political transition in Syria. The independent appeals body concluded that general conditions in Syria no longer justify protection under Section 7(3) of the Danish Aliens Act. However, seven out of ten applicants still received permission to remain.

Individual Circumstances Outweigh General Assessment

One Syrian was granted asylum based on individual persecution grounds under Section 7(1). Six others received derivative protection status because of family ties to people with valid asylum claims in Denmark. Only three applicants had their rejections upheld and are expected to leave the country.

Jesper Lindholm, an associate professor at Aalborg University’s law faculty, says the decisions effectively determine that the majority of Syrians in Denmark cannot be denied asylum. The rulings establish binding precedent for how similar cases will be handled going forward.

Family Ties Prove Critical Factor

Bassah Khalaf, who specializes in immigration law at the University of Southern Denmark, notes that family connections played a decisive role in six of the cases. Some applicants had children or parents with residence permits in Denmark. Others faced individual persecution based on political activity, religious minority status, or LGBTQ identity.

These factors make it difficult for authorities to return Syrians with temporary protection, even though the board now considers Syria generally peaceful enough for return. The legal framework requires authorities to consider not just country conditions but also personal circumstances and family life under Danish immigration law.

Political Leaders Call for Convention Exit

The test case outcomes have triggered strong reactions from right-wing political leaders who want stricter immigration enforcement. Several parties argue that international conventions prevent Denmark from controlling its own asylum policy effectively.

Støjberg Demands Convention Reform

Inger Støjberg, leader of the Denmark Democrats party and former integration minister during the 2015 refugee crisis, says the rulings prove Denmark needs to withdraw from international refugee conventions. She argues the conventions were written for a different era before globalization created current migration patterns.

Støjberg insists Denmark cannot determine its own immigration policy as long as international conventions bind national authorities. She repeats that Denmark must have a confrontation with these treaty obligations to implement sufficiently strict asylum policies.

Danish People’s Party Wants Political Control

Morten Messerschmidt from the Danish People’s Party shares this view. He says Syria is now peaceful and Syrians should obviously be sent home. When asked whether Denmark should trust the independent Refugee Appeals Board’s assessment, Messerschmidt responds that the board should be abolished.

He argues that return decisions should be political judgments rather than legal determinations by an independent body. The party wants elected officials to have direct authority over who can stay and who must leave Denmark.

Long Road to Actual Returns

Despite political pressure for returns, legal experts say there is little prospect of rapid mass deportations. The legal framework and practical realities create significant barriers to sending people back to Syria.

Expert Sees Limited Deportation Prospects

Jesper Lindholm maintains that politicians hoping to send home people with temporary protection will face disappointment. Several Danish political figures had counted on being able to return this group after the regime change. The test cases demonstrate that will not happen in the immediate future.

Bassah Khalaf notes the Refugee Appeals Board has taken a new position by ruling that Syria is generally peaceful enough for return. Nevertheless, the same rulings show it will be very difficult to actually send Syrians home because of individual factors and family considerations.

Derivative Status Creates Protection Web

The concept of derivative protection status extends asylum grounds from one family member to others. If one person has valid grounds for protection under Section 7(1) or 7(2) of the Aliens Act, family members can receive residence permits based on that relationship.

This creates a web of protection that covers many more people than those with direct persecution claims. The six derivative status grants in the test cases suggest this will be a common outcome. Many Syrian families in Denmark include members with different legal grounds for staying, making it difficult to separate and return individual family members.

Background on Syrian Refugees in Denmark

Syrian refugees began arriving in Denmark in significant numbers during the civil war that started in 2011. The largest influx occurred in 2015, when refugee flows across Europe peaked.

Most Hold Temporary Protection Status

The Danish government has stated that approximately 5,000 people from Syria originally received temporary protection status based on general conditions in the country under Section 7(3). This provision applies when general violence or humanitarian crises make return impossible, regardless of individual persecution.

Since 2019, authorities have revoked residence permits for 164 Syrian refugees. Most revocations concerned people from Damascus and the surrounding Rif Damascus region, which officials deemed sufficiently safe for return even before the Assad regime fell. The majority of Syrians in Denmark hold temporary residence permits that must be renewed regularly. A smaller number have obtained permanent residence, which cannot be revoked solely because of changed conditions in the home country.

Case Processing Paused After Regime Change

When Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in December 2024, the Danish Immigration Service immediately suspended processing of Syrian asylum applications. Authorities needed time to assess how the political transition affected security conditions and protection needs.

The Refugee Appeals Board lifted the suspension on June 30, 2025, and sent approximately 600 pending cases back to the Immigration Service for reassessment. The Immigration Service announced on July 21, 2025, that it would begin calling applicants for new asylum interviews in the fourth quarter of 2025. The March 2026 test cases represent the first decisions under the new framework following this pause.

Shifting Numbers and Voluntary Returns

The number of Syrian asylum seekers arriving in Denmark has dropped sharply since the regime change. Simultaneously, more Syrians have chosen to return voluntarily with financial support from Danish authorities.

Applications Drop as Uncertainty Rises

Syrian asylum applications fell from 452 in 2024 to just 150 in 2025. The suspension of case processing and stricter assessment standards contributed to this decline. Overall asylum applications in Denmark totaled 1,959 in 2025, with 875 people granted protection. This marked only the fourth time since 1983 that fewer than 1,000 people received asylum in Denmark.

Syrians are no longer the largest applicant group. Eritreans and Afghans now submit more applications than Syrians. The government points to these figures as evidence that strict immigration policies are working as intended.

Record Numbers Choose Assisted Return

Meanwhile, 413 Syrians left Denmark through the voluntary repatriation program in the first nine months of 2025. This represents a record number for assisted returns. The program offers financial support including travel costs, resettlement assistance, and school expenses for children.

Participants can choose between standard payment in two installments with a right to change their mind, or flexible single payment without the option to return to Denmark. Critics argue that many Syrians feel pressured into accepting repatriation because of uncertain residence status, even when they do not consider Syria genuinely safe.

Minister Maintains Return Push

Immigration and Integration Minister Rasmus Stoklund from the Social Democrats insists the government will continue working to send Syrian refugees back. He acknowledges the test case results but says Denmark must keep pursuing returns.

Focus on Net Migration Numbers

When asked whether returning Syrians is realistic given the legal barriers, Stoklund says he cannot set a specific timeline. However, he points to what he calls negative net migration from Syria. More Syrians are leaving Denmark than arriving, which the minister frames as progress toward policy goals.

The minister says Denmark will keep its focus on the issue and continue efforts to facilitate returns. He emphasizes that some applicants in the test cases did receive rejections, showing that returns are possible under the new framework.

Timeline Remains Unclear

Stoklund declines to specify when large scale returns might occur. The minister’s comments reflect the tension between political ambitions for stricter enforcement and legal realities that limit how quickly people can be sent back.

The government’s strategy appears to combine gradual pressure through temporary status renewals, active promotion of voluntary repatriation, and selective enforcement of deportation orders when legal grounds exist. This incremental approach contrasts with some political rhetoric suggesting rapid mass returns were imminent after the Syrian regime change.

NGOs Warn Against Premature Returns

Human rights organizations and refugee assistance groups strongly dispute the assessment that Syria is safe enough for returns. They argue that serious security problems persist despite the political transition.

Danish Refugee Council Calls Situation Unsafe

The Danish Refugee Council issued a statement after the regime change emphasizing that it remains unsafe for Syrians in Denmark to return home. The organization points to continuing arbitrary arrests, lack of rule of law, and risk of revenge attacks throughout Syria.

The council argues that any returns should be voluntary, safe, and based on informed decisions by refugees themselves. It warns that uncertainty about residence status damages integration in Denmark and calls for authorities to focus on security and participation rather than revocation procedures.

Institute Raises Rights Concerns

The Danish Institute for Human Rights has documented the 164 residence permit revocations since 2019 and raised broader concerns about legal safeguards. The institute emphasizes that changes in risk assessment must rest on solid, independent documentation.

Denmark has faced international criticism from UN bodies for being the only European country systematically attempting to revoke protection for Syrian refugees based on improved conditions. The institute warns that consequences for affected families are far reaching and questions whether security assessments are proportionate and sufficiently documented.

Legal Framework Determines Outcomes

The Danish Aliens Act Section 7 establishes three main grounds for refugee protection, each with different legal standards and practical implications. Understanding these categories is essential for assessing how many Syrians will ultimately be allowed to stay.

Three Types of Protection Status

Section 7(1) provides convention status for people facing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. Section 7(2) grants protection status to people at risk of death penalty, torture, or inhuman treatment. Section 7(3) covers temporary protection when general conditions make return impossible, regardless of individual circumstances.

The Refugee Appeals Board has now ruled that Section 7(3) no longer applies to Syria as a whole. This shifts the focus to individual assessments under Sections 7(1) and 7(2). Many Syrians will need to demonstrate specific persecution risks rather than relying on general country conditions.

Derivative Status Extends Protection

Danish law also provides for derivative or consequential status. When one family member qualifies for protection under Section 7(1) or 7(2), other family members can receive residence permits based on that relationship. This provision appeared crucial in six of the ten test cases.

The Danish Refugee Council notes that all Section 7 permits are temporary and typically granted for one to two years at a time. Revocation requires that fundamental, stable, and lasting changes have occurred in the home country according to the UN Refugee Convention. The organization argues this standard has not been met in Syria, creating tension between NGO interpretations and government practice.

Uncertain Scale of Actual Returns

No comprehensive public data exists on exactly how many Syrians in Denmark will ultimately be assessed as returnable under the new practice. Authorities work with overall figures but uncertainty remains about practical outcomes.

Estimates Based on Limited Information

The government’s figure of approximately 5,000 people who received Section 7(3) status provides a theoretical maximum. However, the test cases suggest that individual circumstances and family ties will allow many to remain even without general country based protection.

Previous revocation numbers, voluntary return statistics, and the test case ratio provide indicators rather than precise predictions. Journalists and policymakers must acknowledge significant uncertainty about the final scope until more cases are decided and authorities potentially release more detailed statistics.

Gap Between Politics and Practice

Political rhetoric from several parties suggests that large numbers of Syrians could and should be returned quickly. The legal reality revealed by the test cases points to a more complex and gradual process. Many Syrians will retain protection through individual grounds or family connections, even if they no longer qualify based on general conditions in Syria.

This gap between political expectations and legal outcomes creates ongoing tension in Danish immigration debates. The disconnect also affects Syrian refugees themselves, who face prolonged uncertainty about their future status while legal and political processes unfold over months and years.