The genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague remains years from a ruling, and a Danish legal scholar warns that the outcome could weaken support for the court itself.
Danish daily Information reported on August 12, 2026 that the case is now in a slow written phase, in an article examining whether Israel will be convicted of genocide in Gaza. South Africa is expected to file its second round of written arguments by November 2027. Israel then has until May 2029 to respond before the case can move forward.
Marc Schack, associate professor of international law at the University of Copenhagen, told Information that only after that stage will the court decide when to hold hearings toward a judgment. He said the contents of the written submissions are not yet public. Schack declined to predict the outcome of the case.
How the case reached this point
South Africa filed its application against Israel on December 29, 2023, alleging breaches of the Genocide Convention in Gaza. Per Information, the first public hearings took place at the Peace Palace in The Hague on January 11 and 12, 2024. The International Court of Justice case file includes the application, the oral argument records and the court’s orders.
South African lawyer Tembeka Ngcukaitobi argued that statements by then defense minister Yoav Gallant and other Israeli officials amounted to incitement to genocide. Israel’s legal team, including Malcolm Shaw and Tal Becker, rejected the accusations. According to Information, Becker argued that the intent to destroy a people was entirely absent from Israel’s operations.
The court has ordered provisional measures three times without ruling on the genocide question itself. In January 2024 Israel was ordered to prevent genocidal acts and ensure access to emergency aid. In March 2024 the court demanded unhindered delivery of food, water and medicine, and in May 2024 it ordered a halt to the Rafah offensive under certain conditions.
Schack said the threshold for provisional measures is relatively low, so the orders show only that the court found grounds to intervene temporarily. He added that it is hard to imagine the court not criticizing Israel for failing to comply with those measures once the main question is decided.
A separate genocide case at the court, brought by Gambia against Myanmar over the Rohingya, is awaiting judgment. As noted by Information, Schack sees strong parallels between the legal questions in the two cases. Denmark intervened in the Myanmar case in a joint statement from November 2023 with Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
Several states have also intervened in the case against Israel. The United States has argued for a high evidentiary threshold, while Ireland has argued that genocidal intent need not be the only purpose behind the acts.
Schack said the public debate has narrowed to genocide or no genocide, while the court cannot rule on war crimes or crimes against humanity. He expects large parts of the world to lose confidence in the institution regardless of the verdict. Danish public opinion on the Gaza offensive has been measured repeatedly during the war.
