Danmarks Nationalbank raised its forecast for Danish house prices on Wednesday, projecting growth of 8.6 percent this year, 4.6 percent in 2027 and 2.9 percent in 2028.
The new projection was published on September 23 as part of a broader analysis of the Danish economy. DR reports that the central bank now expects house prices to rise significantly across the country in the coming years.
The figures mark an upgrade for both 2026 and 2027 compared with the similar forecast Nationalbanken issued in the spring. The analysis is titled “Danish economy defies global turmoil” and is available on the bank’s own website.
According to the forecast, the stronger price growth can be traced in part to construction investment, which has turned out lower than previously assumed. The bank also notes that the supply of new homes is increasing only to a limited degree. When supply does not follow demand, housing prices adjust, the forecast states.
The Copenhagen Post also links the higher expected growth to weaker housing construction investment and limited new supply. Politiken reproduces the same set of forecast figures in its coverage of the announcement.
Comparison with neighboring countries
The forecast compares the Danish housing market with developments in Germany, Sweden and Norway. Price increases in Denmark are currently higher than in the three other countries, the bank finds.
Measured from 2019 onward, however, Danish house prices have not risen significantly more than prices in Germany, Sweden and Norway. The bank presents that longer comparison alongside the current figures.
Copenhagen apartments under watch
Nationalbanken also addresses owner-occupied apartment prices, primarily in Copenhagen. It describes price increases there as very strong in recent years, driven by income and interest rate developments. An accompanying analysis indicates that fear of further price rises may have pushed first-time buyers to enter the market quickly.
The bank does not issue a forecast for apartment prices in the coming years. It states instead that price growth for owner-occupied apartments in Copenhagen has eased in recent months. The reason given is a larger supply of apartments for sale and falling trading activity.
The apartment market remains a point of attention, according to the forecast. In that context, the bank stresses that banks should maintain good and sound credit conditions for household borrowing. In other words, lenders should not extend too much credit, Nationalbanken argues.
The forecast was distributed by Ritzau and reported by DR on Wednesday. It forms part of Nationalbanken’s regular assessment of the state of the Danish economy. Readers following mortgage rate developments will find the housing chapter in the published analysis.
