Gulf oil producers are racing to bypass the Strait of Hormuz with pipelines and new ports, but Goldman Sachs estimates that seven pipeline projects could insulate over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from Hormuz disruptions by end-2027, rising to more than 60% by end-2028. Analysts warn that Iran and its allies could respond by exerting pressure in the Red Sea, turning Bab el-Mandeb into a secondary chokepoint.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are investing billions in infrastructure to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, also known as ADCOP, has a design capacity commonly cited at around 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day, allowing UAE crude to bypass the strait entirely. Saudi Arabia has significantly increased exports via its Red Sea port of Yanbu, using the East-West pipeline during recent Hormuz disruptions. On paper, it looks like a strategic win.
The numbers tell a more complicated story. According to Goldman Sachs, seven pipeline bypass projects could insulate over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from Hormuz disruptions by end-2027. That figure could rise to more than 60% by end-2028, and as high as 75% in an accelerated scenario. But those alternate routes depend on a corridor that is already under fire.
The Hormuz Problem Moves, It Does Not Disappear
Pipelines take years to build and can be bombed, according to Morten Valbjørn, a Middle East lecturer at Aarhus University. The shift to Red Sea export routes simply trades one vulnerability for another. Iran has ties to Houthi forces operating around Bab el-Mandeb, the southern chokepoint where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden. Civilian cargo ships, including vessels linked to Denmark‘s Maersk, have been targeted by Houthi forces in the area.
Valbjørn warned that if Hormuz were fully closed, it would be natural for Iran to widen the conflict. Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East professor cited by Reuters via TV 2, said Iran is willing to go all the way. That assessment matters for anyone living in Denmark who heats a home, fills a car, or buys imported goods, because global oil benchmarks set fuel and freight costs everywhere.
Europe Watches, Urgency Grows
The UAE is reportedly considering doubling the capacity of its Fujairah pipeline to 3.6 million barrels per day, according to Reuters. Troels Ranis, director of industry group DI Energi, told TV 2 that Europe is part of the conversation on expanding this infrastructure. According to TV 2, Donald Trump has floated the idea of a 20% tariff on cargo through Hormuz, though this has not been widely confirmed in primary international sources.
Yet uncertainty remains total, as Ranis himself acknowledged. Building alternate routes does not eliminate the underlying risk. It relocates it to another stretch of water that Iran and its proxies can also reach.
What the Hormuz Disruption Means for Denmark
Denmark’s energy imports are not heavily reliant on direct crude shipments from Gulf producers, but global logistics and energy markets do not respect borders. A shipping disruption in the Red Sea raises freight costs worldwide, as widely documented in shipping and economic analysis. Higher crude benchmarks push up petrol, heating and electricity prices in European markets.
Maersk’s direct exposure underscores how quickly a Middle Eastern crisis can hit a Danish company’s bottom line and delivery schedules. The practical advice for internationals living in Denmark is straightforward: watch fuel bills, check supplier terms for surcharges, and monitor freight advisories. The Gulf states may be building their way around one chokepoint, but the map now shows two pressure points instead of one. That is not a solution. It is a redistribution of risk.
