Novo Nordisk will report its first‑half 2026 results tomorrow, revealing whether obesity‑drug revenue alone can offset what is shaping up to be the company’s first annual sales decline in nearly 30 years.
The half‑year numbers land at a moment when Novo Nordisk’s strategy has become uncomfortably binary. Adjusted obesity‑care sales jumped 22 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2026, according to the company’s own Q1 report. Yet total adjusted sales for the group fell 4 percent at constant exchange rates in the same three months. That split tells the story: Novo Nordisk is betting everything on weight‑loss drugs while the rest of the business shrinks.
For internationals working in Denmark, the arithmetic matters. Novo Nordisk employed roughly 23,000 people in Denmark out of a global workforce of around 66,000 as of 2024, the most recent year with published headcount. Danish labour‑market data from 2023, the last year with detailed sector breakdowns, show that pharmaceuticals already had one of the highest shares of foreign workers in any industry, at 20 to 25 percent of employees in R&D and manufacturing roles. The company itself has said that 30 to 35 percent of its Danish workforce holds a non‑Danish nationality, though no precise 2026 figure is available.
From growth machine to guidance shock
Full‑year 2025 sales reached 309.1 billion kroner, up 6 percent in Danish currency and 10 percent at constant rates versus 2024. That sounds respectable until you compare it with 2024, when sales rose 25 percent. Growth slowed to roughly one quarter of the prior pace. More jarring still, Novo’s 2026 guidance calls for underlying sales and operating profit to fall 4 to 12 percent at constant exchange rates, updated in May from an earlier forecast of 5 to 13 percent.
If that range holds, it will be Novo Nordisk’s first year‑on‑year revenue drop since the late 1990s. The company booked about 8 billion kroner in restructuring costs during the third quarter of 2025, most of it tied to a transformation programme that cut thousands of Danish jobs. Operating profit in 2025 increased 6 percent at constant rates, but only after stripping out those one‑off charges.
What the first‑quarter numbers actually show
Reported first‑quarter 2026 sales came in at 96.8 billion kroner, up 32 percent. Reported operating profit jumped 65 percent. Both figures look impressive until you read the footnotes. A one‑off reversal of a U.S. pricing provision related to the 340B programme added roughly 28 to 30 billion kroner to the top line. Strip that out and adjusted sales fell 4 percent at constant rates. Adjusted operating profit dropped 6 percent.
The obesity‑care segment itself posted adjusted sales of 32.9 billion kroner in the quarter, the 22 percent gain that management has highlighted. U.S. sales fell 11 percent at constant rates, while international operations grew 6 percent. The U.S. drop reflects pricing pressure and the tail end of older insulin franchises; the international rise reflects Wegovy and Ozempic rolling out in Europe and Asia.
The pipeline setbacks keep coming
Novo Nordisk launched the oral Wegovy pill in the U.S. on 5 January 2026. Shares briefly traded above 400 kroner in late January. Then the data started landing. In late February, trial results showed that Eli Lilly’s Zepbound delivered 25.5 percent weight loss over 84 weeks versus 23 percent for Novo’s combination candidate Cagrisema. On 31 July, ziltivekimab missed its cardiovascular outcome target. The share price fell roughly 7 percent that day.
Each setback raises the same question: what comes after semaglutide? Core patents on Wegovy and Ozempic expire in the early 2030s. Biosimilars and generics will flood the U.S. market, eroding the 80‑plus percent gross margins Novo enjoys today. Eli Lilly is projecting continued double‑digit growth in tirzepatide sales through 2026, while Novo is guiding for a decline. The divergence is stark.
What expats need to know now
If you work for Novo Nordisk in Denmark and hold a Fast‑Track or Pay Limit residence permit, check your permit category and expiry date immediately. Danish immigration rules give you one to three months to find new qualifying employment after termination, depending on the scheme. SIRI, the Danish Agency for International Recruitment and Integration, offers English‑language guidance and a helpline. Register that contact now.
On the labour side, A‑kasse eligibility depends on prior membership and contribution. Professional unions such as IDA, Djøf and Pharmadanmark provide English support and can clarify your benefit entitlement. Copenhagen Capacity runs job‑matching programmes for highly skilled internationals in life sciences, with links to Lundbeck, LEO Pharma and smaller biotech firms. Jobnet.dk is the public job portal, though most of the interface is in Danish.
Tomorrow’s numbers will set the tone
Novo Nordisk’s financial calendar lists the half‑year 2026 report for 5 August, which is tomorrow. In the first half of 2025, sales totalled 154.9 billion kroner, up 16 percent year on year, with operating profit up 25 percent. If 2026 guidance is accurate, first‑half 2026 sales could fall into the range of 136 to 149 billion kroner, though no official number has been published yet.
Investors will scrutinise three lines in particular: U.S. obesity‑care revenue, which should reflect the full run‑rate of the oral Wegovy launch; the adjusted operating margin, to see whether cost cuts are flowing through; and any update to full‑year guidance. Management has already cut the forecast once this year. A second cut would confirm that pricing and competition are moving faster than Novo anticipated.
For internationals, the half‑year report is also a bellwether for job security. Denmark’s pharmaceutical sector generates gross value added per worker that is two to three times the EU average, according to Eurostat data from 2024. Every lost pharma job here eliminates more economic activity than similar cuts elsewhere in Europe. That makes Novo Nordisk’s trajectory a national issue, not just a corporate one. Whether tomorrow’s figures show stabilisation or deeper decline will matter far beyond Bagsværd.
