The potential economic impact of rising sea levels and increasing storm surges in Denmark is staggering, with future costs estimated to reach at least 211 billion DKK over the next century unless immediate protective measures are taken.
Storm Floods Bring Economic Concerns in Denmark
In light of recent studies, Denmark faces a looming financial crisis due to an expected increase in storm surges resulting from climate change. The latest report from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the Association of Municipalities (KL) warns that, without the implementation of extensive flood protection measures such as dikes and storm walls, Danish municipalities could incur a massive bill of at least 211 billion Danish kroner (approximately 30.2 billion USD) over the next 100 years due to storm damage.
Increasing Vulnerability to Storm Floods
Professor Kirsten Halsnæs, an expert in climate and economics at DTU, emphasizes the urgency of taking action. The rising sea levels and the increasing frequency of severe storm floods will significantly impact various municipalities across Denmark. Even if the global temperature increase is kept below two degrees Celsius, which is the goal of the Paris Agreement, several municipalities, including Lemvig, Aalborg, and Kalundborg, are projected to face overwhelming financial burdens from storm-related damages.
Municipalities such as Vejle, Kolding, and Mariagerfjord could see economic consequences amounting to more than 10 billion kroner over the next century. The worst-case scenarios suggest that some communities could face financial repercussions between 15 to 20 billion kroner, resulting in a cumulative damage cost of 282 billion kroner nationally.
A Cost-Effective Investment
Despite the high initial costs associated with constructing protective barriers like dikes and storm walls, researchers point out that no municipality has been identified where such investments are deemed unwise. As Halsnæs states, “If the cost of flood damage exceeds the cost of prevention, failing to take action is simply foolish.”
Currently, around 66,000 Danes reside in homes at risk of flooding during storm surges. This number is expected to rocket to between 175,000 and 245,000 within the next century if active measures are not undertaken. While Vejle remains the only municipality where over 5,000 residents currently live under the threat of flooding, cities like Copenhagen, Aalborg, Lemvig, and Slagelse will soon join this list of vulnerable areas.
Broader Implications for Society
The ramifications of storm surges extend beyond individual home damage. The report highlights that, nationally, only 25 per cent of the damage will affect year-round residences. The broader implications encompass parks, public spaces, natural environments, historical churches, and protected buildings.
Halsnæs insists that both the Danish state and municipalities must share the responsibility of financing protective measures. Many municipalities at high risk of storm damage are simultaneously grappling with financial hardships. Residents in seven out of ten communities forecasted to incur significant losses have relatively low average incomes, making it even more challenging for local administrations to address these pressing issues.
Johannes Lundsfryd Jensen, chair of KL’s Climate and Environment Committee, underscores the necessity for state intervention. “We cannot manage this alone. We need the state to take responsibility for major projects requiring investment, as ordinary citizens cannot shoulder this burden,” he asserts.
Collaboration Across Sectors
Lundsfryd Jensen also calls for engagement from pension funds, mortgage institutions, and insurance companies to explore preventative funding options rather than incurring costs later through damages.
The devastating storm surge that hit Denmark in October 2023 serves as a wake-up call for many regions. Coastal areas like Binderup Strand near Kolding and Haderslev were particularly hard hit, where exceptionally high water levels resulted in severe damage to local infrastructure and maritime vessels. This recurring pattern of flooding raises significant concerns for future planning and community resilience.
Over the next two days, KL will hold a climate summit in Aalborg, where the findings of this report will be discussed with municipal leaders and policymakers. While storm surge mitigation is critical, it remains a contentious topic among the nearly 100 municipalities in Denmark. Some areas, particularly those without coastal access, may not perceive storm surge protections as a pressing issue.
As the debate rages on regarding who foots the bill for coastal protection, Jensen argues for a sense of collective responsibility. “People who purchased homes along the coast 20 years ago had no way of predicting the challenges facing us today. We have a social obligation to support those living in vulnerable coastal areas,” he explains.
The fundamental dilemma remains: how to equitably distribute costs for protecting areas that are collectively at risk of flooding while finances are managed on an individual basis?
This complex issue challenges KL, as they seek governmental support to navigate the delicate balance of public safety and financial sustainability. The report bases its estimates on the three most likely scenarios of anthropogenic global warming, as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which suggests we may experience sea level rises of up to one meter if temperature increases continue unbridled.
Acknowledging Hidden Threats
Moreover, some experts in Denmark warn that the current predictions may not accurately reflect a “hidden threat.” Renowned climate scientist Professor Dorthe Dahl-Jensen recently indicated that rapid sea level rises of up to three meters could occur within decades if the West Antarctic ice sheet collapses. Should this scenario unfold, Denmark, with its extensive coastline, will bear a disproportionate burden.
Halsnæs poses a sobering question, “If we are facing a three-meter rise in sea level, vast swathes of land could be permanently submerged. The concern may not just be about storm floods anymore.”
As Denmark grapples with the realities of climate change, the time for action is now. Addressing the challenge of storm surges and rising sea levels is not only a matter of protecting infrastructure but also securing the future of communities and preserving the nation’s heritage.
