New data shows escalating trade war fears have become the primary risk concern for Danish businesses in 2025, following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency and new U.S. trade policies.
Danish Businesses Alarmed As Trade War Overtakes Inflation
For the first time in recent years, Danish businesses, alarmed by the risk of a trade war, now see it as the biggest threat to their operations, according to a survey by the Confederation of Danish Industry (DI). The concern has intensified significantly in the months following Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President in January 2025. The shift is making companies rethink how they plan for the future.
In June 2025, 51% of companies reported that a possible escalation of trade disputes now ranks among their greatest business risks—up from just 30% in December 2024, and 43% in March 2025. The issue has leapfrogged inflation, interest rate volatility, and energy prices, which previously dominated the risk landscape. Several companies are more worried about global politics than prices at home.
Mounting Anxiety Over U.S. Trade Policies
The growing concern follows the introduction of a 10% baseline tariff announced by the Trump administration earlier this year as part of its “Liberation Day” trade agenda. The policy, while designed to be a temporary measure, has created significant uncertainty within global industries, especially with the looming expiration of the tariff pause set for July 9, 2025.
Beyond tariffs, Danish companies are worried about other trade barriers embedded in the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” introduced by the U.S. Congress, which includes special taxes on foreign companies operating in the American market. These measures have fueled uncertainty not just among businesses engaged in U.S. trade, but also among firms indirectly affected via global supply chains.
Export-Driven Firms Feel the Brunt
Export-oriented companies are feeling the most significant impact. Recent survey data revealed that 60% of firms with international sales now cite trade war risk among their top concerns, a rise from 56% in March. Even businesses not focused on international markets are increasingly worried: the share of domestic-focused firms that see trade war as a primary risk doubled in just three months—from 15% in March to 28% in June 2025.
The ripple effect of U.S. policies is also reaching companies not directly trading with the U.S. In fact, 38% of firms without any American export or import activity now list trade war among their most pressing concerns.
U.S.-Exposed Firms Sound Alarms
For companies with direct U.S. exposure—those engaged in exporting, importing, producing, or relying on American suppliers—the situation is especially tense. Nearly two-thirds (around 66%) report the U.S. trade war as a top threat to operations. Additionally, 51% of these firms also rank broader political instability in the U.S. as a major business risk.
Interestingly, exchange rate fluctuations are seen as a lesser concern. Despite recent public debate over whether the dollar will retain its dominance as a global reserve currency, only 18% of U.S.-exposed Danish firms mention currency volatility as a major issue.
Wider Impacts Across Industries
The backdrop of increasing American protectionism has triggered sector-wide caution. Industries reliant on open markets and global trade—such as manufacturing, pharmaceutical exports, and tech—face growing challenges. The uncertainties surrounding future U.S. trade policy developments are prompting Danish firms to reassess supply chain strategies and delay investment decisions that hinge on stable cross-border trade norms.
With geopolitics increasingly influencing economic performance, Danish industry leaders are calling for coordinated EU trade responses, diversified markets, and resilient logistics structures. However, it remains clear that U.S. policymaking—and its unpredictability—is reshaping how companies in Denmark and elsewhere are evaluating risk.
The DI’s analysis surveyed over 475 member companies in June 2025, part of an ongoing quarterly business outlook program. The steadily increasing concern—rising 21 percentage points since December 2024—highlights how fast policy-driven uncertainty can unsettle international business environments.
As the July 9 tariff decision deadline nears, eyes across Danish boardrooms are fixed on Washington, D.C. The next moves by U.S. lawmakers may determine whether these fears evolve into lasting economic damage or a new path toward trade détente.
