Former Social Democratic chairman Mogens Lykketoft believes now could be a good time for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to call an early election, despite recent polling struggles and internal party pressure. Trump’s threats toward Greenland and improved crisis management ratings have strengthened Frederiksen’s political position ahead of the October 2026 deadline.
Speculation Mounts Over Early Election Call
Political speculation is intensifying at Christiansborg over whether Denmark will face an early election. According to Mogens Lykketoft, who chaired the Social Democrats from 2002 to 2005, the timing could work in the government’s favor. If he were leading the party today, he says he could easily imagine pressing the election button.
Lykketoft made these remarks on DR’s P1 program Svingdøren. He pointed out that an election must occur this year regardless, as the last parliamentary vote took place in November 2022. Under Danish constitutional law, elections must be held within four years, meaning the deadline falls on October 31, 2026.
DR’s political analyst Rikke Gjøl Mansø confirms that the possibility of an early election is the primary question circulating among politicians. Several factors are driving these discussions, including improved polling numbers for the Social Democrats, the party’s recent school policy proposal with a class size limit of 14 students, and most notably, the American president’s aggressive stance on Greenland.
From Political Low Point to Crisis Management Success
The Social Democrats faced a difficult political landscape just months ago. In December, an Epinion poll conducted for DR and Altinget showed support for the party at just 16.5 percent. This represented the worst polling result since May 2013 and a dramatic decline from the 27.5 percent the party secured in the 2022 parliamentary election.
Last year’s municipal elections proved equally challenging. The Social Democrats lost ground in 86 out of 98 municipalities across Denmark. In Køge, party deputy chair Marie Stærke resigned as mayor after losing four mandates, dropping to just six seats. Venstre gained three mandates to reach nine, taking control of the mayoral position with Ken Kristensen.
Internally, frustration mounted as 41 Social Democratic council members publicly demanded Mette Frederiksen’s resignation, arguing she was not the right leader to reverse what they called terrible election results. Lykketoft acknowledged this difficult period, noting that polls had hit rock bottom and the municipal results were dismal. A month ago, he says, the general feeling would have been that the government had no chance.
How Trump Changed Denmark’s Political Landscape
Then Donald Trump intervened. In early January, the American president stated he would not rule out using military force to gain control of Greenland. He also threatened the European Union with tariffs if member states supported Denmark and Greenland against his territorial ambitions.
Although Trump has since walked back both threats, his behavior proved extraordinarily helpful for the government, according to Lykketoft. The crisis allowed Frederiksen to demonstrate leadership during an international emergency, shifting public perception in her favor.
Recent polling data supports this assessment. By late January, Epinion showed Social Democrats at 21.6 percent support. While still below their 2022 election results, this represented a significant recovery from December’s low point. More recent data indicates the party has climbed to 23.2 percent, matching their support level one month before calling the 2022 election.
Lykketoft believes voters now admire Frederiksen’s crisis management abilities. People feel secure with her leadership during uncertain times, he explains. The nation has rallied together in response to external pressure.
Cross Party Appeal Beyond Traditional Base
Gitte Seeberg, a former Conservative and later New Alliance parliament member, echoed these observations in the same radio program. She knows many people who would never dream of voting Social Democratic but now think it might be best for Frederiksen to continue as prime minister. Even voters without appetite for the Social Democrats feel reassured by what they perceive as competent leadership at the helm.
This cross party appeal represents a significant shift from just weeks ago. At that time, internal critics questioned whether Frederiksen could maintain a parliamentary majority. Her balancing act seemed increasingly precarious as support eroded and coalition partners faced their own challenges.
The blue bloc has weakened in recent months, creating additional opportunities for the current government. The centrist Frederiksen II Cabinet, comprising the Social Democrats, Venstre, and the Moderates, emerged from the red bloc’s 2022 victory. Any early election would contest all 179 Folketing seats, including 175 in Denmark proper, two in Greenland, and two in the Faroe Islands.
Strategic Timing and Remaining Uncertainties
Lykketoft emphasized that he has no inside knowledge about when an election will be called. Only the prime minister can make that decision. However, he acknowledged that Trump’s Greenland gambit could well be the factor triggering a spring election.
Naturally, circumstances can change rapidly in politics. Something unexpected could easily push the election date to after summer vacation, Lykketoft noted. Both polling numbers and events requiring government response shift constantly.
For now, speculation continues. Some political observers believe Frederiksen may call an election in late March after passing key legislation including the food price check and economic long term plan. This would allow the Social Democrats to campaign on recent policy achievements while benefiting from improved crisis management credentials.
Interestingly, Lykketoft recently announced his own resignation as chairman of Energinet after six years in the role. At age 80, he cited his age and other commitments as reasons for stepping down. During his tenure, he highlighted contributions to securing affordable green energy and expanding the electrical grid amid rising demand from electrification, data centers, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.
Whether Frederiksen will follow her former party chairman’s advice and call an early election remains to be seen. For now, Christiansborg remains filled with speculation, and the government appears positioned more favorably than it has in months. The next few weeks may prove decisive in determining whether Danish voters head to the polls this spring or wait until the constitutional deadline approaches in 2026.
Sources and References
The Danish Dream: Mette Frederiksen’s Make-or-Break New Year’s Speech
The Danish Dream: Best Political and Legal Insurance in Denmark for Foreigners
DR: Tidligere S-formand kunne finde på at trykke på valgknappen nu
