Greenland Crisis Turns Government Poll Tide in Denmark

Maria van der Vliet

Writer

January 23, 2026
10:18 am

Denmark’s two governing parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates, have surged dramatically in a new poll, gaining nine and eight seats respectively. This reversal comes after months of declining support and follows the parties’ handling of the Greenland crisis with the United States.

Major Gains for Government Parties

A fresh poll conducted by Megafon for TV 2 between January 20 and 22 shows significant momentum for Denmark’s government. The Social Democrats now stand at 22.7 percent of votes and 41 seats in parliament. This represents a gain of nine seats compared to the previous poll from early December, when the party held just 32 seats.

Meanwhile, the Moderates have climbed back from the brink of the electoral threshold. Previously dancing dangerously close to the 2 percent barrier with just 2.2 percent support, the party now commands 6.4 percent of votes and 12 seats. This marks an impressive gain of eight seats.

Venstre Faces Setback

Not all government parties benefited equally from recent events. Venstre, the Liberal Party, is the only coalition partner facing a decline. The center-right party dropped five seats, now standing at 10.1 percent of voter support.

Despite the gains, both the Social Democrats and Moderates still trail their 2022 election results. In that vote, the Social Democrats captured 27.5 percent while the Moderates secured 9.3 percent.

Recovery After Municipal Election Losses

The polling boost arrives just months after a bruising municipal election for the Social Democrats. The party lost ground in 89 of Denmark’s 98 municipalities, prompting soul-searching conversations with the party’s grassroots supporters.

Christian Rabjerg Madsen, the Social Democrats’ political spokesperson, told TV 2 that extensive dialogue with the party base helped clarify priorities. The focus shifted sharply toward welfare, inequality, and rising food prices. These themes featured prominently in Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s New Year’s address, which he described as setting a clear Social Democratic imprint.

Asked whether the party can maintain this support level through the next election, Madsen remained cautious but determined. He acknowledged the uncertainty but promised continued hard work from the party.

Crisis Management Boosts Support

Both party representatives and political analysts point to the government’s handling of the Greenland situation as a key factor in the polling surge. In recent weeks, Denmark has faced unprecedented pressure from the United States after President Donald Trump revived his interest in acquiring Greenland.

Madsen credited the voters’ perception of a competent government managing a difficult crisis. According to him, Danes saw a government fully focused on resolving the situation with professionalism.

Mohammad Rona, political spokesperson for the Moderates, echoed this assessment. He highlighted Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s central role in managing Denmark’s response to American pressure. Last week, Løkke Rasmussen traveled to Washington D.C. with Greenland’s foreign minister to meet with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Taking Success With Humility

Despite the positive numbers, Rona emphasized caution. He described the poll as a snapshot in time, noting that fortunes can shift before an election. The Moderates approach the results with humility, having experienced volatile polling throughout 2025.

Opposition Struggles in Crisis Context

Political analyst Ask Rostrup noted that before the New Year, the government resembled a funeral procession heading toward political burial. However, the Greenland crisis represented both challenge and opportunity. For Løkke Rasmussen and Frederiksen, it provided a chance to position themselves as national defenders against pressure from Washington.

Interestingly, Venstre has not benefited from Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen’s prominent role in the crisis response. Jan E. Jørgensen, Venstre’s political spokesperson, suggested that Poulsen’s crucial contributions to defense policy and deploying soldiers to Greenland may have been overlooked by voters.

Nevertheless, Jørgensen expressed confidence rather than concern about his party’s decline in the latest poll. He insisted there was no reason for panic and predicted future gains.

Challenges for Opposition Parties

For opposition parties across the political spectrum, the current situation presents difficulties. As during the coronavirus pandemic, party leaders feel compelled to support the government’s crisis management rather than criticize. This dynamic has translated into poor polling numbers for opposition parties while government partners see gains.

Rostrup observed that the center-right opposition now harbors deep hopes that American pressure will diminish. They want the political debate to return to traditional issues like taxation, immigration, and domestic policy. Without such a shift, the path to ministerial offices after the next election appears challenging for these parties.

Ongoing Tensions Over Greenland

The pressure on Denmark and its European allies continues. Trump has repeatedly stated that America needs Greenland and has not ruled out military action to acquire the territory. Both Løkke Rasmussen and Frederiksen have firmly rejected ceding sovereignty to the United States while expressing willingness to strengthen Arctic security cooperation.

Following the Washington meetings, Trump’s fist bump with Denmark’s ambassador became an international sensation. Yet Trump has since renewed his statements about taking Greenland and threatened punitive tariffs against Denmark and European allies who refuse to support the idea.

The crisis has fundamentally reshaped Denmark’s political landscape, at least temporarily. Whether the government parties can sustain this momentum through an eventual election remains uncertain. For now, the numbers suggest that voters appreciate steady leadership during turbulent times.