Danish exports to the United States reached a record 375 billion kroner in 2025, climbing 14 billion kroner despite President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and a dramatic surge in duties paid by Danish firms. The growth reflects strong American demand and strategic moves by companies to produce locally in the US, though experts warn of long-term risks to competitiveness.
Record Exports Despite Trade Tensions
The past year tested Danish businesses as Trump returned to the White House with aggressive trade policies. His administration imposed sweeping tariffs and repeatedly threatened to seize Greenland, creating uncertainty across European markets. Yet Danish companies pushed total exports of goods and services to the US to 375 billion kroner by year end, up from 361 billion in 2024.
Strong Demand Drives Sales
Las Olsen, chief economist at Danske Bank, attributes the surprising performance to robust American consumption. Americans continue buying despite higher prices from tariffs, he explains. The US economy cannot instantly expand domestic production to meet that demand, leaving room for imports including Danish products.
However, the growth masked significant challenges for individual firms. Olsen notes that while aggregate numbers look positive, many companies faced serious difficulties navigating the tariff environment. Some lost sales outright as higher duties made their goods uncompetitive.
Goods Rise as Services Fall
The composition of exports shifted noticeably in 2025. Goods exports jumped 21 billion kroner while services like shipping dropped 6 billion kroner. A weakening dollar against the krone added another headwind, making Danish products relatively more expensive for American buyers. Despite these factors, the overall trend pointed upward.
Tariff Burden Multiplies
Behind the export growth lies a stark financial reality for Danish exporters. In the first ten months of 2025 alone, Danish companies paid 515 million dollars in US tariffs, roughly 3.3 billion kroner. That figure exceeds the combined total from 2016 through 2024, which stood at 512 million dollars.
Multiple Tariff Layers Apply
The surge stems from Trump’s escalating trade policies. An EU-US framework agreement reached in July 2025 imposed a base tariff of 15 percent on most European goods entering America, replacing prior rates that had climbed to 30 percent in some cases. Exemptions cover strategic items including pharmaceuticals and aircraft components, both relevant to Danish industry.
Steel, aluminum, and copper face even steeper duties. Section 232 tariffs on these metals and products containing them jumped to 50 percent in June 2025, up from 25 percent imposed in March. The average tariff rate Danish exporters now face has increased 12.5 percentage points compared to previous years.
Trade Deal Provides Limited Relief
The July framework offered modest improvements over earlier punitive levels. It eliminated some low European tariffs of 2 to 3 percent on American imports, potentially sharpening competition for Danish firms in their home market. Negotiations continue over specific product categories, leaving some exporters uncertain about final duty rates.
In January 2026, Trump withdrew threats of an additional 10 percent tariff on Denmark and seven other countries, tied to their positions on Greenland. That temporary reprieve followed conversations with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Nevertheless, the baseline 15 percent rate remains in place for most goods.
Companies Adapt Through US Production
Danish firms have responded to tariff pressure by expanding American manufacturing operations. Kamstrup, which produces water meters, exemplifies this strategy. The company operates factories in both Skanderborg, Denmark and Georgia in the US.
Local Manufacturing Avoids Duties
Søren Kvorning, Kamstrup’s managing director, says most products the company sells in America are now made there. Production and sales within the US still count as Danish exports in official statistics, but crucially, those goods avoid import tariffs entirely. The company accelerated this shift in 2025, moving suppliers to the American continent.
Kvorning acknowledges the year brought emotional ups and downs as political uncertainty swirled. Yet Kamstrup maintained focus on business fundamentals while leaving geopolitics to diplomats. He expresses confidence that officials on both sides of the Atlantic will find solutions, though the company watches developments closely.
Smaller Firms Face Greater Struggles
The adaptation strategy works primarily for larger companies with resources to establish foreign production. Smaller Danish exporters lack that option and bear the full brunt of higher tariffs. Only 54 billion kroner of the 375 billion total represents goods physically shipped from Denmark, just 16 percent of exports. That relatively small share shows how much Danish companies now produce abroad.
Kristian Skriver, senior economist at Dansk Erhverv, describes the tariffs as strongly distorting competition. They reduce the competitiveness of Danish firms in the American market, even as overall export figures hold up thanks to US-based investments. Trade groups emphasize tools like Temporary Import Bonds, which allow duty-free entry for repairs or exhibitions if goods return within 12 months.
Long-Term Risks to Investment
Despite 2025’s strong numbers, economists warn that persistent trade tensions threaten future growth. Olsen at Danske Bank points to the difficult calculations businesses now face. Companies must decide whether to build new factories, hire additional workers, or expand capacity without knowing what American trade policy will look like next year.
Uncertainty Undermines Planning
That uncertainty discourages investment across borders. Firms delay projects when they cannot predict tariff levels or market access conditions. Olsen argues this caution will eventually undermine not just Danish or European growth, but global prosperity. Trade barriers reduce efficiency and raise costs throughout supply chains.
The exposure of Danish goods to tariffs has actually declined over recent years as companies shifted production. Tariff-exposed exports fell to 64 billion kroner in 2024, representing 17 percent of total goods exports, the lowest share since 2018. This trend suggests firms were already adapting before Trump’s second term intensified pressure.
Political Solutions Remain Uncertain
Danish business leaders like Kvorning express hope that diplomacy will resolve trade disputes. However, Trump’s sudden reversal on Greenland-related tariffs in January 2026 demonstrated how quickly policy can shift. What appeared settled one day became threatened the next, then reverted again after high-level talks.
The US Supreme Court faces a pending case on Trump’s authority to impose tariffs unilaterally. That ruling could reshape the legal landscape, but timing and outcome remain unclear. Meanwhile, Danish companies must navigate the current system while preparing for potential changes.
European trade authorities provide resources like the Access2Markets tool to help firms identify applicable tariff rates. Dansk Industri maintains lists of tariff codes and exemptions as details emerge from ongoing EU-US negotiations. Still, gaps remain in published guidance, particularly around which products qualify for strategic exemptions.
Statistics Tell Complex Story
The official export figures from Danmarks Statistik reveal both resilience and vulnerability. Record sales to America prove Danish products remain competitive and American buyers still want them. Yet the sixfold increase in tariff payments from 56 million dollars in 2024 to over 500 million in ten months of 2025 shows costs rising sharply.
Services Decline Offsets Goods Growth
The 6 billion kroner drop in services exports, including shipping, partially offset the 21 billion kroner gain in goods. Services generally face fewer trade barriers than physical products, so this decline likely reflects economic factors beyond tariffs. Exchange rate movements played a role as the dollar weakened against the krone through much of 2025.
Goods physically exported from Denmark totaled about 54 billion kroner through November 2025, directly exposed to American import duties. This represents the most vulnerable segment of trade. Companies shipping products across the Atlantic absorb tariff costs or pass them to customers, either way reducing competitiveness against American or non-EU suppliers.
Historical Context Highlights Shift
Comparing 2025 to earlier years underscores the dramatic change. From 2016 through 2024, Danish firms paid a combined 512 million dollars in US tariffs across nine years. The 515 million paid in just ten months of 2025 exceeds that entire period. This spike reflects both higher rates and increased scrutiny on imports from Europe.
The tariff escalation timeline shows key inflection points. Section 232 metal tariffs jumped to 25 percent in March 2025, then doubled to 50 percent in June. The EU-US framework emerged in late July, with details announced in August. Despite these agreements, baseline rates remained well above historical norms for transatlantic trade.
Business Groups Urge Optimization
Danish industry organizations have mobilized to help members adapt. Dansk Industri and Dansk Erhverv provide guidance on tariff classifications, exemptions, and procedural tools. They lobby for favorable terms in EU-US negotiations while advising companies on immediate compliance steps.
Strategic Items Gain Exemptions
Pharmaceutical products and aircraft parts represent two categories exempt from the standard 15 percent tariff, both significant for Denmark’s export mix. Medical device manufacturers and aerospace suppliers can ship to America without facing those duties. Other products must navigate complex rules where the higher of the 15 percent base rate or standard most favored nation rates applies.
Trade groups emphasize that tariffs only affect goods crossing borders physically. Services remain largely untouched, as do products made and sold entirely within the United States by Danish-owned companies. This creates incentives to restructure supply chains and shift production locations, fundamentally altering how firms operate.
Competitiveness Concerns Persist
Skriver at Dansk Erhverv warns that even with workarounds, Danish competitiveness suffers. Tariffs distort markets by making some products artificially expensive compared to domestic American alternatives. Over time, this could erode market share that Danish companies spent decades building.
The broader European dimension adds complexity. All EU members face similar tariff structures, creating a shared challenge. However, countries with larger companies or more existing US production capacity adapt more easily. Denmark’s export profile, heavy on specialized equipment and food products, leaves many firms exposed.
Future Outlook Remains Clouded
As 2026 begins, Danish exporters face continued uncertainty despite the record 2025 performance. Trump’s January withdrawal of additional tariff threats provided temporary relief, yet the underlying 15 percent base rate and 50 percent metal duties persist. Negotiations between Brussels and Washington continue without clear timelines for resolution.
Investment Decisions Hang in Balance
Companies must soon decide on major investments for 2026 and beyond. Building factories, expanding capacity, or entering new markets requires confidence in future access. The volatility of American trade policy makes such planning extremely difficult. Firms that guess wrong face either stranded assets or missed opportunities.
Olsen at Danske Bank expects this uncertainty to gradually weigh on growth. Even if individual companies manage well, the aggregate effect of delayed investments and cautious expansion will slow economic activity. That impact extends beyond Denmark and Europe to affect global trade flows and prosperity.
Political Developments Could Shift Landscape
The pending US Supreme Court case on presidential tariff authority could significantly alter the playing field. A ruling limiting executive power might force congressional approval for future tariffs, potentially creating more stability. Conversely, affirming broad presidential discretion could enable further unilateral actions.
Trump’s focus on Greenland introduced an unusual element to trade tensions between Washington and Copenhagen. While tariff threats tied to the island’s status have been withdrawn for now, the episode demonstrated how quickly non-economic factors can influence trade policy. Danish officials must navigate both commercial negotiations and broader strategic relationships with the United States.
Sources and References
The Danish Dream: Trump Tariff Threats Rattle European Stock Markets
The Danish Dream: Banking in Denmark for Foreigners Updated 2025
DR: Vi har sat ekstra turbo på: Told og trusler preller af på dansk eksport til USA
Dansk Erhverv: Nye tal: Mangedobling af USA-told på importerede varer fra Danmark
Dansk Industri: Straftold mellem EU og USA
Politiken: Dansk eksport til USA steg i 2025 trods told og faldende dollarkurs
Berlingske: Dansk eksport til USA steg i 2025 trods told og faldende dollarkurs
Effektivt Landbrug: Dansk eksport til USA satte rekord i 2025 trods modvind
Avisen Danmark: Eksport til USA siden 2015
AE: Dansk økonomi er godt rustet til Trumps toldtrolderier
