Farmers protested outside Christiansborg on Tuesday against Denmark’s nitrogen law, while calculations from the think tank CERI indicate that 3 to 4 percent of Danish farms would lose their profit.
Farmers gathered in front of Christiansborg on Tuesday morning wearing grass green caps reading “fired by the state”. DR reports that they were demonstrating against the heavily criticized nitrogen law, which the Folketing is expected to pass on Thursday.
The demonstration was organized by the farming group Bæredygtigt Landbrug. Slogans on the square included “False facts. Real layoffs” and “Fired, on the basis of spreadsheets”. The organization argues the law will put more than half of all Danish farmers out of work.
Calculations from CERI point to a much smaller effect. According to the think tank, between 3 and 4 percent of Danish farms would be hit so hard that, for a transition period, it would not pay for them to work their fields. Andreas Lund Jørgensen, deputy department director at CERI, made the calculations.
Per Jørgensen, a farm would have to be unlucky or already on the edge of breaking even for this law to tip it over. That estimate sets aside the compensation that farmers are due to receive. So far around 1.2 billion kroner has been allocated.
CERI estimates the short-term loss on farmers’ gross margin at about 11 percent. The money comes from unused agricultural support pools and is a one-off sum, according to Jørgensen. He compares it to a differentiated VAT, which he says would cost 17 billion kroner every year going forward.
Economic Council member points to environmental gains
Jette Bredahl Jacobsen is an environmental economics member of the Danish Economic Councils and a professor at the University of Copenhagen. She recognizes the overall short-term consequences for agriculture. As she told DR, the long-term ambition is to move production to where it does the least damage.
Jacobsen notes that Denmark is obliged to improve the ecological condition of its seas and water areas, and is far behind. She points to valuation studies estimating the value of a good water environment at around 3 billion kroner, which exceeds the costs.
Jørgen Evald Jensen, director of Bæredygtigt Landbrug, rejects CERI’s figures as far removed from reality. He cites a cattle farmer who must set aside 20 percent of his land and import feed, because the maize he grows releases too much nitrogen.
According to Jensen, the compensation does not match losses of a far larger magnitude. Jørgensen maintains that the law is not the end of Danish agriculture, and that many farms will still operate at a profit.
